The international trade in wheat (including durum and flour) reached
an average volume of around 107 mio t during the last five years (1999/00 -
2003/04). This compares to 106 mio t during 1989/90 - 1993/94 and 96 mio t in 1979/80
- 1983/84. Accordingly, world trade in wheat increased by just 0.5% per annum during
the last 20 years. During the same time, world wheat production showed a growth
of approximately 1.4%. As a consequence, the share of world wheat trade
expressed as a percentage of worldwide production dropped from 21% in 1979/80 -
1983/84 to 19% in 1979/89 - 83/84 and 1999/00 - 2003/04, respectively. This
development demonstrates the efforts of nearly all wheat importing countries to
improve their supplies of wheat through a higher domestic production.
Tab. 5: World wheat exports a, e (million tonnes) |
Fig. 9: Shares of annual wheat exports from average 108 million tonnes
per year (2001 - 2006)
|
The remaining quarter of the world wheat export market is more and
more dominated by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and the
Ukraine. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe exported over 3 mio t of wheat
on average during the last five marketing years. This group of countries
encompasses all the nations that joined the European Union on 1 May 2004 (Poland,
Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia)
or will do so in 2007 or 2008 (Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia). An impressive growth
in wheat exports occurred in the Ukraine, where exports jumped from less than 2
mio t in 1999/00 to 5.5 mio t in 2001/02 and nearly 7 mio t in 2002/03. This
vigorous growth is attributable to very favourable weather conditions during
the period mentioned. In the marketing year 2003/04, the Ukraine turned from a
net exporter into a net importer of about 4 mio t of wheat.
The example of the Ukraine describes very well the potential for huge
variations in weather and growing conditions in all the grain exporting countries
with a continental climate: excellent growing conditions in one year will
regularly be followed by adverse weather conditions, resulting in huge yield
and production losses. As a consequence, price volatility on the world market
for grain has increased significantly in recent years.
Next to the Ukraine, Russia has increased its exports of wheat
dramatically during the last few years. Whereas exports in 1999/00 were a mere
500,000 t, they stood at nearly 13 mio t in 2002/03. Russian wheat captured a
share of close to 12% of the 2002/03 world wheat trade compared to virtually
zero just 3 years before. On average, more than 4 mio t were sold to the world
market during the period 1999/00 - 2003/04, allowing Russia to supply 5% to the
world import demand for wheat. Accordingly, Russia continues to play a major role
on the international wheat market. Whereas the country was the world's leading importer
of wheat during most of the last three decades of the 20th century, Russia has
now joined the ranks of the leading wheatexporting countries. However, one
should keep in mind the influence of the continental climate with its huge
variations in yields and the production of grain. As demonstrated again in 2003/04, adverse weather conditions can quite easily turn
Russia from an exporter into a net importer of wheat (with imports expected to
reach 3 - 4 mio t).
Tab. 6: World wheat imports a, e (million tonnes)
|
Whereas exports of wheat continue to be dominated by developed
industrialised countries, imports are increasingly dominated by less-developed
countries in Asia, Latin America and North Africa (Tab. 6). The most important
import region during 1999/00 - 2003/04 was Asia with imports of nearly 23 mio
t, equal to over 20% of all wheat trade. The countries of North Africa imported
around 17 mio t and Latin American countries bought over 15 mio t of wheat on
the world market. The three regions combined accounted for 55 mio t of the international
trade in wheat, equal to over half of the total volume traded on average during
the last five years. The EU has been the number-one importer of wheat during
1999/00 - 2003/04, with an average volume of 6.8 mio t. However, the yearly variations
have been significant. Whereas EU imports reached only 3.2 mio t in 2000/01,
they amounted to nearly 10 mio t in 2001/02 and 12 mio t in 2002/03. In 2003/04
a drop to a maximum of 5 mio t is expected.
The exceptionally high imports in 2001/02 and 2002/03 were due to the
huge supply of very competitively priced wheat from the Ukraine and Russia. The
EU reacted to this and implemented tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for wheat from these
countries which limit the import volume to 3 mio t. So we have to expect that
in years in which the EU has a normal crop, imports of wheat will not exceed 5
mio t, including about 1.5 mio t of durum. The only other industrialised
country of major importance for the world wheat market continues to be Japan.
However, the import volume has been a constant 6 mio t for many years, with the
USA as the main supplier.
All the other major importing countries are developing countries, the
most important one being Brazil. Depending on the size of its own crop, imports
normally vary between 6 and 7 mio t. Nearly all of this wheat is supplied by Argentina.
The other major importer of wheat in Latin America is Mexico, with annual imports of around 3 mio t supplied exclusively by the other NAFTA
countries, the USA and Canada. Egypt regularly competes with Brazil as the world's
leading importer of wheat, with annual imports exceeding 6 mio t. Egypt is a perfect
example of the still important political dimension of the international grain
trade. Most of Egypt's wheat imports have their source in the USA, either as
food aid or under long-term credit programmes.
Tab. 7: World wheat imports a, e (million tonnes)
|
Overall, world trade in wheat is expected to show a much more
pronounced growth in the years to come than in the last two decades. According
to the projections of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, world trade in wheat
will climb to around 130 mio t in 2013, an increase of nearly 20% compared to
the 107 mio t traded on average in the marketing years 1999/00 - 2003/04.
Source : By K.-D. Schumacher (The Future of Flour Book)
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